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Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence

Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary

Posted Online March 02, 2018
https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00694

Review of Economics and Statistics

Volume 100 | Issue 1 | March 2018
p.167-186
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Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence

Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary
https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00694
Received: July 15, 2013
Accepted: March 09, 2016
Published Online: March 02, 2018
Abstract

We document the extent of measurement errors in the basic data set on police used in the literature on the effect of police on crime. Analyzing medium to large U.S. cities over 1960 to 2010, we obtain measurement error-corrected estimates of the police elasticity. The magnitudes of our estimates are similar to those obtained in the quasi-experimental literature, but our approach yields much greater parameter certainty for the most costly crimes, the key parameters for welfare analysis. Our analysis suggests that U.S. cities are substantially underpoliced.

Aaron Chalfin
University of Pennsylvania
Justin McCrary
University of California, Berkeley
https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00694
Abstract

We document the extent of measurement errors in the basic data set on police used in the literature on the effect of police on crime. Analyzing medium to large U.S. cities over 1960 to 2010, we obtain measurement error-corrected estimates of the police elasticity. The magnitudes of our estimates are similar to those obtained in the quasi-experimental literature, but our approach yields much greater parameter certainty for the most costly crimes, the key parameters for welfare analysis. Our analysis suggests that U.S. cities are substantially underpoliced.

Aaron Chalfin
University of Pennsylvania
Justin McCrary
University of California, Berkeley
Download Options

Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence

Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary
https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00694
Received: July 15, 2013
Accepted: March 09, 2016
Published Online: March 02, 2018
Abstract

We document the extent of measurement errors in the basic data set on police used in the literature on the effect of police on crime. Analyzing medium to large U.S. cities over 1960 to 2010, we obtain measurement error-corrected estimates of the police elasticity. The magnitudes of our estimates are similar to those obtained in the quasi-experimental literature, but our approach yields much greater parameter certainty for the most costly crimes, the key parameters for welfare analysis. Our analysis suggests that U.S. cities are substantially underpoliced.

Aaron Chalfin
University of Pennsylvania
Justin McCrary
University of California, Berkeley
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