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How do great powers decide whether to provide arms to or form alliances with client states? This “patron's dilemma” revolves around a decision about how to best provide security to clients without becoming entrapped in unwanted conflicts. Strong commitments worsen the risk of entrapment, whereas weak commitments intensify fears of abandonment. This traditional alliance dilemma can be addressed through the provision of arms and alliances. Great power patrons primarily make such decisions on the basis of two factors: first, the extent to which the patron believes it and its client have common security interests; and second, whether the patron believes that its client has sufficient military capabilities to deter its main adversary without the patron's assistance. Patrons assess the degree of shared threat and the local balances of capabilities in determining whether to support their clients with arms, alliances, or both. As demonstrated in the U.S. provision of security goods to Taiwan and Israel during the Cold War, this strategic logic explains how great powers manage the patron's dilemma.

Keren Yarhi-Milo
Keren Yarhi-Milo is an assistant professor of politics and international affairs in Princeton University's Politics Department and the Woodrow Wilson School for Public and International Affairs.
Alexander Lanoszka
Alexander Lanoszka is Lecturer in the Department of International Politics at City, University of London.
Zack Cooper
Zack Cooper is a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

How do great powers decide whether to provide arms to or form alliances with client states? This “patron's dilemma” revolves around a decision about how to best provide security to clients without becoming entrapped in unwanted conflicts. Strong commitments worsen the risk of entrapment, whereas weak commitments intensify fears of abandonment. This traditional alliance dilemma can be addressed through the provision of arms and alliances. Great power patrons primarily make such decisions on the basis of two factors: first, the extent to which the patron believes it and its client have common security interests; and second, whether the patron believes that its client has sufficient military capabilities to deter its main adversary without the patron's assistance. Patrons assess the degree of shared threat and the local balances of capabilities in determining whether to support their clients with arms, alliances, or both. As demonstrated in the U.S. provision of security goods to Taiwan and Israel during the Cold War, this strategic logic explains how great powers manage the patron's dilemma.

Keren Yarhi-Milo
Keren Yarhi-Milo is an assistant professor of politics and international affairs in Princeton University's Politics Department and the Woodrow Wilson School for Public and International Affairs.
Alexander Lanoszka
Alexander Lanoszka is Lecturer in the Department of International Politics at City, University of London.
Zack Cooper
Zack Cooper is a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.